Provisional rating - chess term

Provisional_rating

Definition

A provisional rating is an initial, temporary estimate of a player’s strength based on a small sample of rated games. Because the system has little data, the rating carries high uncertainty and can change rapidly with each result. You may also see the terms “unestablished rating” or a suffix such as “P” (e.g., 1480P) to indicate provisional status.

How it is used in chess

Organizers, arbiters, and online platforms use provisional ratings to seed players in tournaments, determine pairings in Swiss-system events, and place players into sections or matchmaking pools. Provisional ratings are treated as real ratings for most practical purposes, but many organizations recognize their volatility and apply safeguards.

• Swiss pairings: Players are paired using their current rating, even if provisional. However, directors may use additional information for completely unrated entrants (such as prior performance or coach estimates).
• Section and prize eligibility: Many events require an established rating for certain class prizes (to reduce the risk of “sandbagging”). A player with a provisional rating might be eligible for fewer class prizes or subject to special conditions.
• Online matchmaking: Platforms may show a “provisional” marker and pair new accounts more cautiously until the system’s uncertainty drops.

Calculation and systems

Details vary by federation or platform, but they share the same goal: adjust rapidly when information is scarce, then stabilize. Related concepts include K-factor (the sensitivity of a rating to new results) and Rating_deviation (a measure of uncertainty in systems like Glicko-2).

• US Chess (USCF): A player’s rating is considered provisional until a set number of rated games are completed (commonly 26). Early on, special formulas or larger multipliers allow big jumps, especially in the first few events. Display often uses a “P” tag (e.g., 1213P).
• FIDE: FIDE does not mark ratings as “provisional” once published. However, new players on the rating list use a higher K-factor (e.g., K=40) until they reach a threshold number of rated games (commonly 30). This accelerates rating adjustment in the early phase.
• Online platforms (Glicko/Glicko-2): New players start with high rating deviation (RD), indicating uncertainty. Results rapidly shrink RD; once it drops below a threshold or after a certain number of games, the “provisional” label disappears and the rating becomes more stable. See also Glicko-2.

Strategic and practical significance

• Volatility: Early wins or losses can move a provisional rating by hundreds of points. Do not overinterpret a single result.
• Seeding: A strong newcomer with a low provisional rating may be under-seeded, potentially facing a series of higher-rated opponents and causing pairings upheaval with upsets.
• Preparation: When scouting an opponent, a provisional rating is a weak predictor. Check recent performance or game quality instead of relying solely on the number.
• Ethics and policy: To deter rating manipulation, many organizers require an established rating for certain under-XXXX sections or set prize caps for players with provisional ratings.

Examples

Example 1 — US club tournament: A new player enters with an estimated 1200P. In a 4-round Swiss against opponents averaging 1600, they score 3/4. Because their rating is provisional, the post-event rating may jump to around 1500–1650 in one go. With each additional event, gains and losses shrink as the rating establishes.

Example 2 — Online blitz: A new account wins its first 6 games against 1500–1600 opponents. The starting “provisional” blitz rating might leap from 1200 to 1700+, then settle near 1600–1750 after a dozen games as the RD falls below the platform’s threshold.

Example 3 — Upset game by a provisional player: In the following miniature, imagine a 1200P player defeating a 1700 player with energetic piece play in the Scandinavian. One game like this doesn’t define true strength, but during the provisional phase it can swing rating notably.

Miniature (hypothetical):

White to move first; Black chooses the Scandinavian Defense. After 1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Qxd5 3. Nc3 Qa5, White accelerates development and castles long, building pressure on the open d-file.

View the sequence:

Historical notes and anecdotes

• Terminology: “Provisional” has long been standard in US Chess lists, where players were often displayed with a “P” until they completed enough games for an established rating.
• Policy evolution: As rating theory advanced, federations adopted mechanisms like higher K-factors (FIDE) or explicit uncertainty measures (Glicko-2) so new or inactive players’ ratings update quickly to reflect current strength.
• Tournament lore: Directors sometimes keep “house ratings” or ask coaches for estimates to seed true newcomers. Big provisional upswings in weekend Swiss events are common—and part of the excitement for rising players.

Tips

• Don’t chase your provisional number. Focus on quality games; the rating will settle after enough results.
• If you’re preparing for a game, look at recent games rather than relying on a provisional rating. It might lag behind the player’s real strength.
• Organizers: Consider prize eligibility rules or floors for provisional players to keep competitions fair. See also Swiss_system and Sandbagging.