Axioms-of-Probability

Quick summary

Nice upward trend — your rating and win rate have been improving this month. Your games show strong attacking instincts (pawn storms, promotions, mating nets) and the ability to convert tactical chances. At the same time you give away games from missed tactical resources or after overextending the kingside. Below are focused, practical suggestions to keep the momentum going.

What you're doing well

• Sharp attacking play — you convert kingside pressure into decisive threats (example: a game where you promoted and forced mate with active rook/queen play).
• Endgame awareness — you successfully pushed passed pawns and converted promotions in a rapid game, showing good vision in pawn endgames and queen/rook endings.
• Opening variety — you’re comfortable with many sidelines (Barnes, English, Alekhine). Barnes Opening / Walkerling lines are performing especially well for you.
• Recovery and resilience — when a game gets messy you still find practical tactics and winning continuations instead of panicking.

Key areas to improve

• Calculation under complexity — a couple of losses show missed tactics and not checking a defender or a back-rank/queen tactic before executing a committal pawn push.
• Pawn storms without enough backup — advancing pawns aggressively (g4/g5/g6 style) can backfire if pieces and the king become exposed. Make sure to evaluate counterplay before committing.
• Opening follow-up and consistency — your openings are varied (good for learning), but some lines (notably the Alekhine in your record) have a lower win rate. Decide whether to study a few lines deeply or keep the variety intentionally.
• Blunder-check routine — you still lose games to concrete tactical replies from the opponent. Add a quick “two-check” routine before every major move: check captures, opponent checks, and direct threats.

Game-specific notes (recent rapid games)

• Win vs carlosss85 (Black): you played aggressively, forced a tactical sequence that led to your opponent resigning. Good exploitation of a weak back rank and using knight jumps into the enemy camp. Replayable snippet:
• Win (checkmate conversion): excellent use of piece activity and a passed pawn to turn a middlegame advantage into a decisive promotion/mate — shows you can calculate forcing sequences well when you keep the initiative.
• Loss vs carlosss85 (English-type game): you over-pushed on the kingside (g-pawn advances and sacrifices). The opponent found tactical counterplay that exploited loose squares and left you short of defenders. Before pawn storms, ask “what are my king’s escape squares and who defends the center?”.

Opening recommendations

• Double down on what’s working: you have very high success with Barnes lines (85% win rate). Keep those as a surprise or practical choice against lower-rated players.
• If you like the fight the Alekhine gives — study one or two stable replies for the middlegame pawn structure. Try Alekhine Defense theory for the critical 5–10 move window so you avoid getting out of book into a worse structure.
• For the English and more positional openings, pick one system you enjoy and learn typical plans (pawn breaks, where to put knights, where to trade). That will reduce tactical oversights from unfamiliar middlegames.

Concrete 4-week training plan

• Week 1 — Tactics: 30 minutes/day solving tactics with emphasis on mating patterns, forks, and deflections. Finish each problem by writing down the forcing moves you checked before moving.
• Week 2 — Mini-endgames: 20 minutes/day on basic king + pawn vs king, rook vs pawn, and queen vs rook conversion techniques. Practice converting a passed pawn under time pressure.
• Week 3 — Opening work: pick 2 openings you play most (one as White, one as Black). Learn typical plans for moves 10–20. Watch a single model game and summarize the plan in three bullet points.
• Week 4 — Play and review: play 10 rapid games (same time control you play normally). After each loss, write one sentence: “What one move changed the evaluation?” Focus on learning from that move.

Practical in-game checklist (use before every move)

• Are any of my pieces hanging or can they be trapped in one move?
• Did I create a new tactical target (back rank, pinned piece, fork square)?
• Do I have enough defenders for any pawn push or sacrifice I’m about to play?
• If I don’t see a forcing line, can I make a waiting or improving move instead of committing?

Short-term goals (next 2 weeks)

• Cut blunders by half: after each move take an extra second to run the two-check routine.
• Finish one endgame theme (rook and pawn basics) and practice 5 positions until conversion is automatic.
• Play 15 rated rapid games and annotate the three most instructive losses.

Notes & resources

• Keep using openings that give you confidence — your psychology matters. If Barnes/Wakerling gives good results, keep it in your toolbox.
• Use the “review” phase after each game as your most important study time. A 5-minute post-game write-up beats 30 minutes of passive watching.
• Stay consistent — your month-to-month slope and recent +42 rating change show you improve when you stick to a plan.

Want me to do next?

Tell me which game you want a deeper annotated post-mortem on (paste the PGN or pick a link). I can highlight exact candidate moves, missed tactics, and show an improved move-by-move plan.