Fabiano Caruana GM

Blitz Overview Since Our Last Check-In

Your strength adjusted win rate is still just above 51%, and the 12‑month rating trend is clearly upward. The small positive change over 1, 3, and 6 months suggests you are stabilizing at a very high level rather than swinging wildly. The recent mini‑streak in December (4/4) confirms that when you’re fresh and focused, you still convert your practical chances at a Super‑GM level in blitz.

In the latest games against Gerson Príncipe and Karthik Venkataraman, the pattern is very clear: you consistently create long‑term structural pressure and then either win cleanly on the board or through clock pressure. Your blend of solid structures with active piece play remains your main “brand” in blitz.

What You Are Doing Especially Well

• Consistent, sound openings with flexible structures In the Indian setups (A47, A48) and the Sicilian French structure (B40), you repeatedly reach healthy, low‑risk positions:
  • As Black in the Indian Game, you’re happy to allow early central exchanges and emerge with a compact pawn structure and the more harmonious pieces.
  • As White in the B40 Sicilian, you traded queens early and steered into a better rook and pawn ending by exploiting the opponent’s badly placed king and a‑pawn.
  This is classic “grinder” strategy in blitz: keep the position sound, let the opponent overextend, then squeeze.
• Exploiting weak kings and loose coordination In the A47 and A48 games as Black, once White pushed pawns and shuffled pieces on the queenside, you shifted gears and hunted the king:
  • You brought queen and rook to the same side as the exposed king and used repeated checks to create a long‑term mating net rather than a direct “one‑punch” Cheap shot.
  • The final phase of the A47 game is instructive: you never allow the white king to consolidate; instead, you keep it walking into checks, with your rook and queen coordinating while your own king stays sheltered.
  This shows a high‑level understanding of Practical chances: once the enemy king is open in blitz, you don’t have to find the “Computer move”; just keep the net tight and the clock ticking.
• Clinical conversion of material advantage In the Trompowsky (A45) game as White, after you liquidate with queen trades, you reach a position where your rooks dominate the seventh and black has no counterplay:
  • Your choice to play simple, forcing moves (rook to the seventh, tighten, no unnecessary pawn moves) is a model of avoiding a late‑game Moron move.
  • Black’s resignation on move 21 reflects that you left them with a passive, helpless position—no swindling chances, no Swindle.
  This kind of “no counterplay” technique is one of your big blitz edges vs. sub‑3200 opposition.
• Endgame confidence under time pressure Both your B40 Sicilian win and the long A48 game show that you are very comfortable playing long rook and minor‑piece endings with little time:
  • In B40, you calmly pushed your b‑pawn supported by rook activity, ignoring useless pawn‑grabs and just escorting the passer.
  • In the A48 game where you win on time, your king and bishops coordinate to restrict the white pieces; you keep creating threats while not allowing any clear Escape square for the enemy king or pieces.
  This is classic “Flagging without cheesing”: the position itself is winning or very pleasant, and the clock just finishes the job.

Recurring Issues in These Recent Games

Even in wins, there are some patterns that will matter as you keep pushing toward higher peak blitz ratings.

• Letting winning or clearly better positions drift into “only slightly better” In the B40 Sicilian, after winning the space and structure battle, there were a couple of moments where you allowed Black some unnecessary counterplay with active rook checks and their kingside pawn push:
  • You repeatedly gave Black the chance to create a passed pawn or lateral rook activity instead of cutting the king off immediately.
  Even if the engine still calls it winning, in blitz these “second best” choices can turn a technical win into a time scramble.
• Underusing forcing moves to simplify when clearly ahead In both the A47 and A48 games as Black, you had chances to simplify into nearly “Dead draw or lost for them” endings with no counterplay, but you kept pieces on instead:
  • Instead of trading queens when your rooks are already ideally placed, you sometimes keep the queen for more attacking chances.
  • This works against most foes, but against more resilient defenders you risk giving them a last‑second Swindle opportunity or a perpetual.
  The trade‑off is subtle: you are maximizing winning chances versus giving the opponent zero practical opportunities. Finding that balance is key for a higher strength adjusted win rate.
• Occasional overreliance on time pressure rather than clean kill In both Indian‑type games where you “won on time” against Gerson Príncipe, the final positions are better or winning, but not absolutely trivial:
  • The king hunt is strong, but you don’t always close the net with a clean forced sequence; instead, you rely on your opponent failing with seconds remaining.
  Against top blitz specialists with excellent Flag skills, you want those positions to be closer to a direct Bullet Checkmate or a totally hopeless endgame.
• Allowing some pieces to remain slightly Loose in transitions In the A48 and A47 middlegames, there are brief moments where, due to your active play, one of your rooks or minor pieces becomes a bit LPDO (“Loose pieces drop off”). You get away with it because your opponent doesn’t have time or coordination to exploit it. But versus someone like “blitz‑prime” Carlsen or another top “Tactics beast”, these may get punished quickly.

Opening and Early-Middlegame Takeaways

Your data and these games line up: you are scoring extremely well in solid, flexible openings, especially Caro‑Kann, Modern setups, and Nimzo‑Larsen / English‑type structures. The recent games reinforce a few points.

• Indian / Queen’s pawn defenses (A47–A48)
  • These games show excellent understanding of queenless middlegames and semi‑open files; you often steer into positions where you can pressure isolated or advanced pawns.
  • There is room to sharpen your repertoire by adding more direct punishments when opponents expand prematurely on the queenside, rather than always steering toward long squeezes.
• Sicilian French structures (B40)
  • Your handling of the early queen trade into better piece coordination is textbook; you transform a slightly better structure into a winning rook ending.
  • As a next step, you could diversify with one or two more dynamic B40 sub‑lines that give you immediate initiative, especially in games where you want to avoid a pure grind.
• Trompowsky attack (A45) and related “irregulars”
  • The Trompowsky Attack game shows that you are using it more as a practical blitz weapon than as a deep theoretical battleground. You got a very pleasant position straight out of the opening.
  • It may be worth adding a few specific Trap and Trick line enjoyer ideas (for example, lines where black’s knight can be trapped or where a central pawn push wins a piece) to boost your early decisive results.

Given your opening stats (Caro‑Kann, Modern, Nimzo‑Larsen, English all scoring above 72% in many cases), the key is no longer “which opening” but refining your most frequent structures with a few sharp, ready‑made motifs for blitz.

Concrete Study Positions from These Games

Here are a couple of snapshots from your recent games that are worth revisiting in “study mode”, not just as memories from blitz.

• B40 Sicilian – converting the rook and pawn ending

  Questions to explore with an engine and on your own:

  • At which moment could you have cut Black’s king off even more ruthlessly?
  • Was there a simpler winning plan than allowing the kingside pawn race?
• A47 Indian – finishing the king hunt cleanly

  Study goal: find the most forcing route that either wins material earlier or forces a simpler queen trade plus a winning rook endgame. This training will reinforce spotting fast kills instead of “just” long squeezes.

Targeted Improvement Plan

• 1. Finish attacks more cleanly instead of relying on flagging
  • Once the enemy king is clearly unsafe, pause briefly to look for direct forcing sequences: checks, captures, and threats in that order.
  • Use short sprint sessions: set up positions from your own games where you had a big attack with 20–30 seconds each, and practice finding a quick forced win instead of a long squeeze.
• 2. Sharpen your “no‑counterplay” simplification instinct
  • In analysis, mark all moments where a simple exchange of queens or rooks would have turned a strong attack into a nearly risk‑free endgame.
  • Ask: “Against a top defender who plays like an Engine, would I rather keep pieces, or lock in a technical win?”
• 3. Continue building on your best structures
  • Review a small, curated set of model games in your top‑performing systems: Caro-Kann Defense, Modern, Nimzo-Larsen Attack, and English Opening: Agincourt Defense. Focus on typical piece maneuvers and pawn breaks.
  • For each structure, add one or two “ready‑made” Trap ideas or quick tactical motifs specifically for blitz (for example: a standard knight sacrifice, a typical rook swing, or a standard tactic when the opponent plays a “Boomer move” weakening their king).
• 4. Maintain the positive rating trend without over‑grinding
  • Your 12‑month slope is excellent; protect it by setting short, focused blitz blocks (for example, 10–15 games), followed by immediate review of 2–3 key moments rather than huge marathons.
  • Flag any recurring pattern—time trouble in sharp lines, or a repeated structural concession—and dedicate a single short training session just to that theme.

Closing Thoughts

These recent wins show that your essential strengths in blitz—sound openings, high‑class technique, and strong practical instincts—are fully intact. The rating data confirms long‑term improvement, with only normal fluctuations at a very high level. If you now focus on converting your attacking and superior positions more decisively, and slightly reduce reliance on the opponent’s time trouble, your strength adjusted win rate should climb well above its current ~51% without needing any radical change in repertoire or style.